Things are slow in the 1/18 market on retail and manufacturi
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Things are slow in the 1/18 market on retail and manufacturi
I have noticed a huge decrease in the 1/18 scale market and that is not just the manufacturing side but on the retail side also.
For example I just listed 20 1/18 scale items and about 10 of the items closed on Monday. Out of those ten items 6 things sold. http://shop.ebay.com/aviatornut/m.html? ... ksid=p4340
Only a year ago everything would have sold.
If this is the trend then I understand manufacturing being hesitant on producing anything new and with the higher prices they have charge, I am not sure we will see much future in 1/18.
I believe custom has taken over in some ways and also I think we will always see figures but big ticket items are going to be few.
Just my opinion from a fellow collector.
For example I just listed 20 1/18 scale items and about 10 of the items closed on Monday. Out of those ten items 6 things sold. http://shop.ebay.com/aviatornut/m.html? ... ksid=p4340
Only a year ago everything would have sold.
If this is the trend then I understand manufacturing being hesitant on producing anything new and with the higher prices they have charge, I am not sure we will see much future in 1/18.
I believe custom has taken over in some ways and also I think we will always see figures but big ticket items are going to be few.
Just my opinion from a fellow collector.
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Re: Things are slow in the 1/18 market on retail and manufac
Well, you could always look at it the other way around. I, for instance, have been contemplating purchasing a BBI Sabuko zero, but have not gotten around to it, as I see no reason to collect any additional items with the market (on the manufacturer side, mind you) in the sorry state it's in. I can only afford to pay cottage industry prices occasionally and don't want the hassle of having to build a kit myself. While not a completist by any stretch of the imagination, there's no way I'm going to throw more money at this hobby if I won't be able to expand my collection in any meaningful way. And I don’t see that happening any time soon.
Re: Things are slow in the 1/18 market on retail and manufac
part of it too is that ebay is not the hot selling venue it used to be. Buyer traffic is way down and exposure poorer due to saturation of listings from various sources. Current management is destroying the once mighty ebay.
I don't shop nearly as much on ebay as i used to and i think many buyers are the same.
Plus, poorness from the recession is at its peak right now...so many people are simply not buying due to lack of disposable funds.
I doubt 1/18 will ever be what it was, but i think it will continue.... we'll see. JSI backing off from its plans, AllGo in limbo....not good signs for sure.
But i think the odd wwii fighter will sell well and that's what we'll probably get from time to time. From what i can see the Pegasus Bell X-1 has been well received.
1/16 tanks are looking better and better though...
I don't shop nearly as much on ebay as i used to and i think many buyers are the same.
Plus, poorness from the recession is at its peak right now...so many people are simply not buying due to lack of disposable funds.
I doubt 1/18 will ever be what it was, but i think it will continue.... we'll see. JSI backing off from its plans, AllGo in limbo....not good signs for sure.
But i think the odd wwii fighter will sell well and that's what we'll probably get from time to time. From what i can see the Pegasus Bell X-1 has been well received.
1/16 tanks are looking better and better though...
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Re: Things are slow in the 1/18 market on retail and manufac
Really not much happening in 1/18 right now.Not much to talk about regarding any new releases either.Only the very expensive JSI F-14, and the probably uber expensive All Go/Skyworks A-10.
Doesn't seem to be much good news with new releases, or prices. So it would seem that collectors in this scale will have to catch up on old releases that they missed, or go with customs to get something new.And manufacturers will not do a new release, unless they can make a profit.Pegasus X-1 was a breath of fresh air, until GG decal issue raised its ugly head.
Without beating this issue to death, the days of $40 1/18 models are over.And not sure how many of us would consider spending some significant $, to get another 1/18 model.For me at least, the allure of 1/18 has always been that you get a lot of model for the money. It's really big, decent detail, and really cheap, considering.
Make these 1/18 a premium price, and most collectors will think long and hard before making any purchases. Resulting in less sales, and a higher per unit cost. Vicious circle.
I do collect many other scales, but really like my 1/18. Just for the sheer WOW factor.But unless a "reasonable" price point can be acheived, this scale will get more and more expensive. With less and less sales.
On a positive note, glad I was able to get a lot of these for very good prices. And have enough to last me for many, many years. So if this scale does go under, still have lots of them, and always Ebay for others. They weren't exactly limited.
Hope I am wrong, as there still is interest, but the less that happens, probably fewer collectors willing to pay for this scale.
Doesn't seem to be much good news with new releases, or prices. So it would seem that collectors in this scale will have to catch up on old releases that they missed, or go with customs to get something new.And manufacturers will not do a new release, unless they can make a profit.Pegasus X-1 was a breath of fresh air, until GG decal issue raised its ugly head.
Without beating this issue to death, the days of $40 1/18 models are over.And not sure how many of us would consider spending some significant $, to get another 1/18 model.For me at least, the allure of 1/18 has always been that you get a lot of model for the money. It's really big, decent detail, and really cheap, considering.
Make these 1/18 a premium price, and most collectors will think long and hard before making any purchases. Resulting in less sales, and a higher per unit cost. Vicious circle.
I do collect many other scales, but really like my 1/18. Just for the sheer WOW factor.But unless a "reasonable" price point can be acheived, this scale will get more and more expensive. With less and less sales.
On a positive note, glad I was able to get a lot of these for very good prices. And have enough to last me for many, many years. So if this scale does go under, still have lots of them, and always Ebay for others. They weren't exactly limited.
Hope I am wrong, as there still is interest, but the less that happens, probably fewer collectors willing to pay for this scale.
Re: Things are slow in the 1/18 market on retail and manufac
Sometimes its a matter of Timing on this unfathomable quirk of ebay
I've seen few times when an item listed and ended with no takers, relisted again immediately, and amazingly bids come in thick and fast and finally sold 30-50% above opening bids.
There are some 1/18 stuff gone for no bids or at low price, but also some, like the F-16, going thru the roof.
I'm just glad I have other things to collect besides 1/18 but I too am hoping this is just a lull and consolidation for the industry before things get into motion again and we'll see some sorely needed new stuff
Do we have 3000 members here? Lets get BBI to commission a Hartmann Me109!
I've seen few times when an item listed and ended with no takers, relisted again immediately, and amazingly bids come in thick and fast and finally sold 30-50% above opening bids.
There are some 1/18 stuff gone for no bids or at low price, but also some, like the F-16, going thru the roof.
I'm just glad I have other things to collect besides 1/18 but I too am hoping this is just a lull and consolidation for the industry before things get into motion again and we'll see some sorely needed new stuff
Do we have 3000 members here? Lets get BBI to commission a Hartmann Me109!
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Re: Things are slow in the 1/18 market on retail and manufac
I think it is a fact that the poor economic climate has simply locked a lot of people out of the hobby. Further, economic realities suggests that the Chinese will not be slaves to the U.S. consumer forever, and we are already seeing this starting. As U.S. and Chinese wages move inexorably toward an equilibrium these products will become no more feasible than if BBI were to try to produce an A-10 in a plastics plant here in the U.S. today. Imagine the cost of that!Aviatornut.com wrote:I have noticed a huge decrease in the 1/18 scale market and that is not just the manufacturing side but on the retail side also.
For example I just listed 20 1/18 scale items and about 10 of the items closed on Monday. Out of those ten items 6 things sold. http://shop.ebay.com/aviatornut/m.html? ... ksid=p4340
Only a year ago everything would have sold.
If this is the trend then I understand manufacturing being hesitant on producing anything new and with the higher prices they have charge, I am not sure we will see much future in 1/18.
I think you had people involved in 1/18 scale who were able to buy in at the Wal-mart heydey prices, but now facing higher prices PLUS a recessionary economic climate it is like a double-whammy on big ticket items in a hobby that was not dominated by "rich people" to begin with, as far as I can tell.
However, I think you cannot use eBay sales to judge the market entirely. eBay sales are not what they used to be. I don't think consumers "browse" eBay these days the same way they used to, and the way they would at an online specialty store. I know I certainly don't, I just can't be bothered. eBay is so clogged with crap, mis-listed or poorly described items, etc. that I don't bother going there unless I am looking for something very specific. I don't even list actual eBay auctions any more unless I have something I consider highly desirable/collectible. Otherwise, it's just Buy It Now listings.
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Re: Things are slow in the 1/18 market on retail and manufac
its all to much to think about
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Re: Things are slow in the 1/18 market on retail and manufac
No matter how you look at it, this hobby is in the process of continuing to become more expensive. I'm going to make another prediction here to follow up on Aviatornut's post. The sag in interest on older models is only very temporary. Example: F-104 Starfighters and Mig-15's are continually offered at 60-70 bucks and those move SLOW even in low quantity and availability. People say, well I have one or 2, or 5 already. Ok... But- And here is my point:
If things continue in the trend that I am seeing, 1:18 is in very serious peril. By this time next year I think that demand for planes like the F-104 and MiG-15 will see sales in the 150 - 200 range. Why? because they aren't being made any more and I seriously doubt they ever will. What is made is what we have. Guys like me are buying these planes now in preparation of customization of new paint schemes for ourselves first and foremost and the occasional selling off to a fellow collector. Skyworks is about the only game in town for new produced products today. And because the entire 1:18 market has ZERO to do with that it used to be those products are made differently, cost more and are produced in FAR fewer numbers to those that will understand and have the means and desire to continue collecting.
Today- I see people contacting me doing something I have NEVER seen before until now. I have 3 requests just this week alone to have fans ship to me a standard issue 21C or BBi plane from the personal collection and asking to see it in a new scheme previously not offered. So people are even seeing value and interest in simply "fixing up" a collection. In a way that someone might decide that it's more fun to remodel a house and enjoy that.
Make no mistake- The collections you have now are going to be a gold mine in the near future if things don't magically change and soon! F-16's and F-18's for 400+ THINK about that for just a moment! Spitfires are 225+ Try finding a 21C P-40 for less than 80!... and that's a P-40 my friends! Care to guess what an F-14 is going to cost when JSI stops producing? 500-600+ easily! BUT- lets go back to today and use something that we are all familiar with and can't argue... F-16!
Me: Ok so fellow fan, you want a BBi F-16 Thunderbirds painted for you? I don't have a "shell" plane.
Fan: I do! I just bought one on Ebay for 300! Can you believe that?
Me: WOW you got pretty lucky! normally they can go for 400+.
Fan: how much to paint it into a T-bird. (too bad BBI is not making these at all anymore)
Me: Well it's a lot of time and paint and vinyl masks. If I pay myself 15 bucks an hour and add the materials this plane will cost you 250.
Fan: Ok, and shipping? Well you have to pay to get the plane to me and you gotta now pay to get to get it back.
Me: FedEx ground on that plane to the lower 48 is roughly 18-25 bucks each way.
Fan: So my total?
Me. 300 for the bird, 250 paint, 50 shipping... 600 bucks!
There you go my friends. And this is a a real example with today's prices and availability and assuming that I can or will want to continue to paint planes for 15 bucks per hour! (I can only produce 10-12 models a year) These are EXCLUSIVE! I have 3 plane projects NOW and I am booked solid through the next 6-8 weeks. I do these because I like to make them. I like to give fellow fans something that is unique in collections. It's fun to have something of quality that only you have. AND- it simply can't last as it will not become a regular job without the planes reaching in 1000 per plane, even then it would be tough as nails to even come close to my ability to capture income through traditional business means.
The lack of availability, total lack or presence in 1:18 mass production, and timeless interest in aviation / military models will only ensure that my prediction is perhaps not only accurate but just the tip of the iceberg is very real and already well on it's way. This Niche market situation will only feed and support on itself. Planes like the F-16, F-18, are proving that. They will continue to. YES- this means that 90% of the fan base can't play or will refuse to. But- when there are absolutely few to ZERO options out there... you only need the 10 to 5 % to pay the needed and fully justified expensive prices to keep it going as a cottage hobby at best!
I miss you 21C & Wal-Mart! I now don't shop either brand.
If things continue in the trend that I am seeing, 1:18 is in very serious peril. By this time next year I think that demand for planes like the F-104 and MiG-15 will see sales in the 150 - 200 range. Why? because they aren't being made any more and I seriously doubt they ever will. What is made is what we have. Guys like me are buying these planes now in preparation of customization of new paint schemes for ourselves first and foremost and the occasional selling off to a fellow collector. Skyworks is about the only game in town for new produced products today. And because the entire 1:18 market has ZERO to do with that it used to be those products are made differently, cost more and are produced in FAR fewer numbers to those that will understand and have the means and desire to continue collecting.
Today- I see people contacting me doing something I have NEVER seen before until now. I have 3 requests just this week alone to have fans ship to me a standard issue 21C or BBi plane from the personal collection and asking to see it in a new scheme previously not offered. So people are even seeing value and interest in simply "fixing up" a collection. In a way that someone might decide that it's more fun to remodel a house and enjoy that.
Make no mistake- The collections you have now are going to be a gold mine in the near future if things don't magically change and soon! F-16's and F-18's for 400+ THINK about that for just a moment! Spitfires are 225+ Try finding a 21C P-40 for less than 80!... and that's a P-40 my friends! Care to guess what an F-14 is going to cost when JSI stops producing? 500-600+ easily! BUT- lets go back to today and use something that we are all familiar with and can't argue... F-16!
Me: Ok so fellow fan, you want a BBi F-16 Thunderbirds painted for you? I don't have a "shell" plane.
Fan: I do! I just bought one on Ebay for 300! Can you believe that?
Me: WOW you got pretty lucky! normally they can go for 400+.
Fan: how much to paint it into a T-bird. (too bad BBI is not making these at all anymore)
Me: Well it's a lot of time and paint and vinyl masks. If I pay myself 15 bucks an hour and add the materials this plane will cost you 250.
Fan: Ok, and shipping? Well you have to pay to get the plane to me and you gotta now pay to get to get it back.
Me: FedEx ground on that plane to the lower 48 is roughly 18-25 bucks each way.
Fan: So my total?
Me. 300 for the bird, 250 paint, 50 shipping... 600 bucks!
There you go my friends. And this is a a real example with today's prices and availability and assuming that I can or will want to continue to paint planes for 15 bucks per hour! (I can only produce 10-12 models a year) These are EXCLUSIVE! I have 3 plane projects NOW and I am booked solid through the next 6-8 weeks. I do these because I like to make them. I like to give fellow fans something that is unique in collections. It's fun to have something of quality that only you have. AND- it simply can't last as it will not become a regular job without the planes reaching in 1000 per plane, even then it would be tough as nails to even come close to my ability to capture income through traditional business means.
The lack of availability, total lack or presence in 1:18 mass production, and timeless interest in aviation / military models will only ensure that my prediction is perhaps not only accurate but just the tip of the iceberg is very real and already well on it's way. This Niche market situation will only feed and support on itself. Planes like the F-16, F-18, are proving that. They will continue to. YES- this means that 90% of the fan base can't play or will refuse to. But- when there are absolutely few to ZERO options out there... you only need the 10 to 5 % to pay the needed and fully justified expensive prices to keep it going as a cottage hobby at best!
I miss you 21C & Wal-Mart! I now don't shop either brand.
Re: Things are slow in the 1/18 market on retail and manufac
the other thing that can happen, going forward, is that there is a gradual tailing off of interest in this scale due to size concerns and lack of new product.
More and more people will start dumping their collections, which causes a glut of availble product to an ever shrinking pool of buyers. Resulting in dropping prices. I think that is part of what Aviatornut is seeing.
There are a lot of 21c 109's listed on ebay right now, most for high prices and none of them are fetching those high prices, so they're bound to come down.
There will always be a small number of people smitten by this scale but it will be an ever shrinking number if there is no new product to keep interest alive.
I think 1/18 armour is pretty much a dead doornail now. With nothing new for years (what was the last NEW tank we had, the panzer IV?) and nothing on the horizon, plus 1/16 being a very strong market, i doubt there will be enough people still around to buy 1/18 tanks if and when AllGo or Unimax decides to produce something new.
About all there is to hope for in this hobby, for a long time to come, is star wars, gi joe, modern and wwii figures and the odd smallish plane, like the X-1, komet or maybe a new spitfire or fw-190. Certain modern jets may have a hope, if JSI can get their act together..
More and more people will start dumping their collections, which causes a glut of availble product to an ever shrinking pool of buyers. Resulting in dropping prices. I think that is part of what Aviatornut is seeing.
There are a lot of 21c 109's listed on ebay right now, most for high prices and none of them are fetching those high prices, so they're bound to come down.
There will always be a small number of people smitten by this scale but it will be an ever shrinking number if there is no new product to keep interest alive.
I think 1/18 armour is pretty much a dead doornail now. With nothing new for years (what was the last NEW tank we had, the panzer IV?) and nothing on the horizon, plus 1/16 being a very strong market, i doubt there will be enough people still around to buy 1/18 tanks if and when AllGo or Unimax decides to produce something new.
About all there is to hope for in this hobby, for a long time to come, is star wars, gi joe, modern and wwii figures and the odd smallish plane, like the X-1, komet or maybe a new spitfire or fw-190. Certain modern jets may have a hope, if JSI can get their act together..
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Re: Things are slow in the 1/18 market on retail and manufac
I'm with the grenade chunker on this one. I refuse to think.its all to much to think about
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Re: Things are slow in the 1/18 market on retail and manufac
Ok, let's assume TKO’s assessment is correct, the Pegasus X-1 notwithstanding. We're royally FUBAR then. Which is why I don't get the whole "but we should just be so grateful that manufacturers are still around to rob us blind" attitude in this hobby.
Being that this is now officially "a rich man's hobby", that 90% chunk of collectors (the 21st Century sans-culottes, if you will) who will forever be excluded from the 1/18 collecting demographic will probably migrate toward other scales where their humble patronage is still appreciated. Definitely 1/16 for armor and possibly 1/32 for armor and aircraft. Apparently, manufacturers in those scales *have* managed to strike a balance between affordability and profitability and can still make a profit without prices going through the roof.
Who will keep the 1/18 cottage industry going? How many people are out there with that kind of disposable income (a Skyworks P-40E @ $800) who can't really afford an HPH model with all the bells and whistles (which the latest 1/18 scale expensive new releases sorely lack) — five hundred, a thousand guys?
And, more importantly, if this is where things actually stand nowadays, market-wise, by your own admission, TKO, then why does All-Go keep on teasing collectors with something they don't intend to actually produce for the unwashed masses, like the A-10?
Being that this is now officially "a rich man's hobby", that 90% chunk of collectors (the 21st Century sans-culottes, if you will) who will forever be excluded from the 1/18 collecting demographic will probably migrate toward other scales where their humble patronage is still appreciated. Definitely 1/16 for armor and possibly 1/32 for armor and aircraft. Apparently, manufacturers in those scales *have* managed to strike a balance between affordability and profitability and can still make a profit without prices going through the roof.
Who will keep the 1/18 cottage industry going? How many people are out there with that kind of disposable income (a Skyworks P-40E @ $800) who can't really afford an HPH model with all the bells and whistles (which the latest 1/18 scale expensive new releases sorely lack) — five hundred, a thousand guys?
And, more importantly, if this is where things actually stand nowadays, market-wise, by your own admission, TKO, then why does All-Go keep on teasing collectors with something they don't intend to actually produce for the unwashed masses, like the A-10?
Re: Things are slow in the 1/18 market on retail and manufac
Good question! My response is more to everyone and not directly you... But it's a good point and I would like to share.King O' Fools wrote:Ok, And, more importantly, if this is where things actually stand nowadays, market-wise, by your own admission, TKO, then why does All-Go keep on teasing collectors with something they don't intend to actually produce for the unwashed masses, like the A-10?
I think I have some of the answer but since it's not really my company nor am I a paid employee of All-Go I simply can't know for sure. I'm 2 sates away and spend 10 hours a day focusing on different industries needs.
When All-Go contacted me the plan was pretty straight forward:
1. We are planning to make a re-structured comeback.
2. We need to get everything off the ground and in place in terms of logo, package solutions, website, marketing (these are what I do professionally so that's why I was given those specific tasks)
3. We have the KT, and a couple other things that we could roll with but we want to start with a plane.
4. Which plane to do... Lot's of debate from P-51D repaints (passion wagon), A-10 refit (modified), OR- start with a whole new subject and make from scratch)
5. Ultimately, I think there was a real plan in place starting with the P-51D as a humble / affordable "genesis" project to help get momentum.
6. Lack of interest in the P-51D and issues concerning quality vs. costs in China ultimately equaled a halt on this project (good call I say!)
7. Ok, regroup, evaluate and consider the A-10? Expensive to produce, concern over ultimate fan reaction and profitability while watching the F-14 launch.
8. Rather than wait, partner with Skyworks to allow them access to refit the A-10 and while doing so research and consider how to produce it in a joint fashion. (remains to be seen)
That is about 8 points of reference that have spanned about 10 months. So frankly we don't REALLY know the end of the story with All-Go, not even me. For all I know All-Go is knee-deep in producing a new plane which we discussed time an time again from a list of 5 different aircraft and they are keeping quiet or whatever. Or they might be sitting back and waiting, or getting some Venture Capitol. It's not my company to run and I am here when they need me and I offer support as I can. Regardless of what All-Go does or ultimately does not do will not change the course of things that are already playing out.
Example: The F-16's F-18's and a few other birds continue to be in demand, continue to be scarce, and continue to rise in value. And like it or not (which I don't for the record) this hobby is likely seeing it's last sunset for the immediate future. 1:18 scale life as we knew it already changed drastically the day that WM elected to stop supporting 50% of it's toy profile and quote "we are going to take a new approach". It's only now that we fans are really starting to see those effects on our hobby and without mass support in the mix. The picture is WAY more expensive, way more exclusive, and YES, not going to be an option for everyone.
To tell me that it sucks is preaching to the choir. I'm there too. I'm upset that it's taken this long to work through strategy, evaluation, set-backs and all that stuff concerning All-Go. I want new planes too. Even if the big ones cost 200 a pop. But... Unless I have half a million from an investor who doesn't mind taking a 50 / 50 chance. I can't take control and make a go of it myself. -Something I have actually kicked around back in 2009. I have an open invitation that if anyone wants to spend that cash and doesn't mind the odds... Lets pick a plane and make it for everyone.
I'm an optimistic guy by nature. Many of you know me personally and know that I try to shoot as straight as I can. I am merely trying to give us all an advance warning that now is the time to hang onto your stuff, now is the time to find deals and act on them, now is the time to consider new ways to modify and switch up collections with repaints, modification kits, dioramas, trades, and so on. I just see days ahead where MiG-15's, F-104's and the like are commanding much more than they are now. Higher demand and missed pieces like the F-16, Spitfires, and the like could become even more valuable simply out of scarcity. I think certain schemes will also start to show move value over others like for example: a Rall 109 commands more than the other 109 family. The German F-104 commands more than the USAF "Really George". I am not trying to be a jerk or ruffle any feathers. You can take my opinion or leave it. Me: I'm gonna start buying a few of these in-expensive shell planes. I don't want it to come to an end. So- I'll live with the molds we have and make some new schemes! Been my plan for the past 20 months and It's been better than nothing. Think I will make me a Sabre next! I haven't had a new one in a while!
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Re: Things are slow in the 1/18 market on retail and manufac
Guess I'll hang on to the S1 USAF F-104 I got a couple months ago for $60, plus a few other extra pieces and see what happens I may also consider picking up a few of the affordable pieces that are still around, like the Stuka zu Fuss halftrack and the M-48 tank at my local Hobbytown store...
I feel that TKO is right on the money regarding the scarcity issue and indeed it is something we have seen throughout the existence of this hobby. Nevertheless, I am still wary of All Go and do not believe that the future of 1:18 hangs on them at this point. In my view, JSI is the wild card in terms of the future of this hobby and could either make or break it.
In the mean time, we simply just have to accept the higher prices and be willing to pay them within reasonable limits if we want to continue with this hobby.
I feel that TKO is right on the money regarding the scarcity issue and indeed it is something we have seen throughout the existence of this hobby. Nevertheless, I am still wary of All Go and do not believe that the future of 1:18 hangs on them at this point. In my view, JSI is the wild card in terms of the future of this hobby and could either make or break it.
In the mean time, we simply just have to accept the higher prices and be willing to pay them within reasonable limits if we want to continue with this hobby.
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Re: Things are slow in the 1/18 market on retail and manufac
Aferg,
I have to agree with you. And many of you have it right . I think it would be great to go back to the days when these planes were more plentiful and lower priced, but those days are gone.
I have to agree with you. And many of you have it right . I think it would be great to go back to the days when these planes were more plentiful and lower priced, but those days are gone.
Todd
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Re: Things are slow in the 1/18 market on retail and manufac
I can see, and agree with both TKO's and Afergs points.
Without new releases in 1/18, interest in this scale will dwindle. But think that there may be some hard core collectors who will continue to want these models.And perhaps some collectors in the smaller scales may consider getting their favourite aircraft in this large scale. But only a much reduced demand so prices may drop. Or perhaps as they aren't being made anymore, prices will rise. Hard to tell one way or another. It is all dependent on the demand.
Thankfully TKO is willing to do some customs, and can see customs demand rise significantly.
I hope 1/18 will survive, but I am pessimistic.
Glad that all these aircraft were made in the first place, and as there were lots of them made they should still be available for years to come. But will get rarer and rarer as time goes on.
Without new releases in 1/18, interest in this scale will dwindle. But think that there may be some hard core collectors who will continue to want these models.And perhaps some collectors in the smaller scales may consider getting their favourite aircraft in this large scale. But only a much reduced demand so prices may drop. Or perhaps as they aren't being made anymore, prices will rise. Hard to tell one way or another. It is all dependent on the demand.
Thankfully TKO is willing to do some customs, and can see customs demand rise significantly.
I hope 1/18 will survive, but I am pessimistic.
Glad that all these aircraft were made in the first place, and as there were lots of them made they should still be available for years to come. But will get rarer and rarer as time goes on.
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Re: Things are slow in the 1/18 market on retail and manufac
I think you are exactly right. There is always a "magic point" at which stock kind of simultaneously dries up with retailers on these kind of specialty products. As a retailer myself, I can always tell when this occurs, because suddenly sales will start picking up on particular items. When dealing with items that aren't being re-manufactured regularly, the prices will frequently skyrocket then reach an equilibrium and stay there. This has always been particularly noticeable in 1:18 scale, where product will sit around, but once it dries up at most retailers, consumers who were delaying buying the product will "panic" and suddenly there will be a huge uptick in orders until my inventory is exhausted as well.tko211 wrote: If things continue in the trend that I am seeing, 1:18 is in very serious peril. By this time next year I think that demand for planes like the F-104 and MiG-15 will see sales in the 150 - 200 range. Why? because they aren't being made any more and I seriously doubt they ever will. What is made is what we have.
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Re: Things are slow in the 1/18 market on retail and manufac
To say 1/18th is dead is just plain dumb. Look at Gi-Joe.... I played with there 3,3/4 inch figures when I was a kid and they are still here not to mention the great granddaddy Star Wars. Toy tastes are cyclical just like the economy.... they are up and they are down. 1/18th go a huge boost after 911 with the USA was all worked up with the Wars and patriotism. Now people are not only bumbed and worn out the economy is in the dumpster and looks to be taking along time to recover. No 1/18th isnt dead but it is currently trying to find its footing again
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Re: Things are slow in the 1/18 market on retail and manufac
I believe the post is dealing with the lack of historically accurate 1/18 and in that department things are bad.
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Re: Things are slow in the 1/18 market on retail and manufac
To qualify my post. American Grenadier is correct. I was referring only to the niche of 1:18 historically correct military aircraft, figures, and tanks. Historically correct being qualified as, real looking vehicles and figures with real / historical paint schemes, nations, squadrons, groups or whatever.
So no- I am not talking about the end of Star Wars, Gi-Joe, the uber toyish cheapo offerings in military, Wrestling figures, pokemon, avatar, or marvel comic book figures.
So no- I am not talking about the end of Star Wars, Gi-Joe, the uber toyish cheapo offerings in military, Wrestling figures, pokemon, avatar, or marvel comic book figures.
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Re: Things are slow in the 1/18 market on retail and manufac
You are totally correct. 1:18 really isn't dead - there are Bravo Team modern Army, USMC, and Special Ops troops on the shelves at my local Target stores, along with the modern vehicles. There's also a lot still to be had via eBay and remaining stock at the small retailers. I know none of these items are really "new" but they do represent 1:18 items that are still out there and keeping the hobby alive. Then, add to that the wildcard potential of companies such as JSI and perhaps All Go (assuming they get their rear in gear).usmcchet9296 wrote:To say 1/18th is dead is just plain dumb. Look at Gi-Joe.... I played with there 3,3/4 inch figures when I was a kid and they are still here not to mention the great granddaddy Star Wars. Toy tastes are cyclical just like the economy.... they are up and they are down. 1/18th go a huge boost after 911 with the USA was all worked up with the Wars and patriotism. Now people are not only bumbed and worn out the economy is in the dumpster and looks to be taking along time to recover. No 1/18th isnt dead but it is currently trying to find its footing again
The scale has certainly slowed and perhaps achieved a more sustainable form in terms of price and selection. Yes, it totally stinks compared to the heyday in the early and middle part of this past decade, but again its probably more sustainable and will ensure the survival of the hobby in some form.
As usmcchet also noted, toy lines always go in cycles. When I was young back in the mid-1980s, I remember the Vintage Star Wars items being all over at TRU and other places - then the line tanked and was not reserructed for nearly 10 years. Even the famed original 3 3/4" GI Joe line tanked in the early 1990s only to resurface a few years later with renewed collector interest. Heck, I'm still bummed that Galoob went under, ending their Action Fleet and Battle Squads lines just as they were getting in some of their finest pieces, but that is the way things go in the toy world.
21c and the small scale military hobby are no exception. Don't get me wrong as the XD line and the goods from the other companies that followed were and still are a dream come true for me as they are for most of you. Nevertheless, I suspected from the outset that the XD line was something special (and perhaps a bit anomolous) and that would not continue forever. With a few small exceptions, I made sure to take advantage of the availibility of the XD products a few years back and am glad I did.
I guess that in the end we have to be patient, accept the conditions as they are, and enjoy what we have
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Re: Things are slow in the 1/18 market on retail and manufac
I agree there will always be action figures but I think the day of having options in different aircrafts or military vehicle are behind us. I was told all the old 21st century inventory that was sitting around in China is now gone. And with our only option of slow releases from JSI we do not have many options.
Thanks for the advice about eBay being slow and not just market. I am just surprised by how weak the sales on eBay are now.
With China not willing to do business as usual we are now in an era where product is out of the range of the mass public. Also with most collectors hitting their storage capacity, there is not much room for many paint schemes.
But leaving the hobby is not the answer because most scales are in the same boat except 1/72 die cast. And even 1/72 is seeing a huge increase in price but there is diversity.
Thanks for the advice about eBay being slow and not just market. I am just surprised by how weak the sales on eBay are now.
With China not willing to do business as usual we are now in an era where product is out of the range of the mass public. Also with most collectors hitting their storage capacity, there is not much room for many paint schemes.
But leaving the hobby is not the answer because most scales are in the same boat except 1/72 die cast. And even 1/72 is seeing a huge increase in price but there is diversity.
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Re: Things are slow in the 1/18 market on retail and manufac
There are some options. There are some things going on behind the scenes now that probably won't manifest anything until 2011, but there are players that want to continue to see 1:18 scale products released. The caveat, as we've discussed before, is that the days of Wal-mart pricing are long over so in 2011 and beyond there will be a test to see how 1:18 scale is supported by consumers.Aviatornut.com wrote:I agree there will always be action figures but I think the day of having options in different aircrafts or military vehicle are behind us. I was told all the old 21st century inventory that was sitting around in China is now gone. And with our only option of slow releases from JSI we do not have many options.
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Re: Things are slow in the 1/18 market on retail and manufac
Neither was I but I was trying to point out that the scale is a popular scale that has at times come and gone. Gijoe and Star Wars both came and went and came back again and so will 1/18th scale military figures. 1/18th scale is the perfect compromise for figures. Bigger than the standard 1/32 or plasic armymen scale and smaller than 12 inch 1/18 is the best bang for the buck so to speak. While I cited GIJOE and SW it was only to show its a popular scaletko211 wrote:To qualify my post. American Grenadier is correct. I was referring only to the niche of 1:18 historically correct military aircraft, figures, and tanks. Historically correct being qualified as, real looking vehicles and figures with real / historical paint schemes, nations, squadrons, groups or whatever.
So no- I am not talking about the end of Star Wars, Gi-Joe, the uber toyish cheapo offerings in military, Wrestling figures, pokemon, avatar, or marvel comic book figures.
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Re: Things are slow in the 1/18 market on retail and manufac
Greetings:
While 1/18 may not be dead, it certainly is not what is was or I think will ever be. In fact, I am quite honestly totally bored of the hobby at the moment, and look at it with more disdain than anything else.
Since I only collect aircraft, 1/18 was cool when the aircraft were being released and new items were being pumped out. The new items just don't excite me and have been problematic, the custom pieces while fun are quite expensive and some bad dealings (not of this board) in the 1/18 world have left a generally sour taste in my mouth regarding the hobby.
I've been picking up smaller scale pieces due to the lack of 1/18 releases and when I see smaller scale pieces that are better constructed and of better quality than a large scale piece, I wonder why I even collect 1/18 anymore. It seems that this scale/hobby has never been normal, and the bizzare nature of collecting it and the pieces will continue. I like to buy something, take it out, put in on display and enjoy it. It's been hard to do that recently in 1/18 with all the problems with some of the latest releases.
I may sell off my collection and move on. It's not a dying scale by any means but my interest in it has defintely waned in the last couple of months.
Corey
While 1/18 may not be dead, it certainly is not what is was or I think will ever be. In fact, I am quite honestly totally bored of the hobby at the moment, and look at it with more disdain than anything else.
Since I only collect aircraft, 1/18 was cool when the aircraft were being released and new items were being pumped out. The new items just don't excite me and have been problematic, the custom pieces while fun are quite expensive and some bad dealings (not of this board) in the 1/18 world have left a generally sour taste in my mouth regarding the hobby.
I've been picking up smaller scale pieces due to the lack of 1/18 releases and when I see smaller scale pieces that are better constructed and of better quality than a large scale piece, I wonder why I even collect 1/18 anymore. It seems that this scale/hobby has never been normal, and the bizzare nature of collecting it and the pieces will continue. I like to buy something, take it out, put in on display and enjoy it. It's been hard to do that recently in 1/18 with all the problems with some of the latest releases.
I may sell off my collection and move on. It's not a dying scale by any means but my interest in it has defintely waned in the last couple of months.
Corey
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Re: Things are slow in the 1/18 market on retail and manufac
Very understandable response Corey.
And I am sure many other 1/18 collectors feel this way.
Lots of great stuff available in 1/32, and smaller scales. Better quality and detail, and done in metal. Plus the selection is much more vast.
The selling point of 1/18 was the size[WOW factor], and the price. Quality was usually average. And would be unacceptable in a smaller scale. Just wouldn't be able to compete with the other manufacturers.
But it really is like comparing apples to oranges.
And I am sure many other 1/18 collectors feel this way.
Lots of great stuff available in 1/32, and smaller scales. Better quality and detail, and done in metal. Plus the selection is much more vast.
The selling point of 1/18 was the size[WOW factor], and the price. Quality was usually average. And would be unacceptable in a smaller scale. Just wouldn't be able to compete with the other manufacturers.
But it really is like comparing apples to oranges.